Afghanistan 'falling into hands of Taliban'

The Taliban has a permanent presence in 54% of Afghanistan and the country is in serious danger of falling into Taliban hands, according to a report by an independent think-tank with long experience in the area. Despite tens of thousands of NATO-led troops and billions of dollars in aid poured into the country, the insurgents, driven out by the American invasion in 2001, now control "vast swaths of unchallenged territory, including rural areas, some district centers, and important road arteries," the Senlis Council says in a report released on Nov. 21. On the basis of what it calls exclusive research, it warns that the insurgency is also exercising a "significant amount of psychological control, gaining more and more political legitimacy in the minds of the Afghan people who have a long history of shifting alliances and regime change." It says the territory controlled by the Taliban has increased and the frontline is getting closer to Kabul -- a warning echoed by the UN which says more and more of the country is becoming a "no go" area for western aid and development workers. The council goes as far as to state: "It is a sad indictment of the current state of Afghanistan that the question now appears to be not if the Taliban will return to Kabul, but when... and in what form. The oft-stated aim of reaching the city in 2008 appears more viable than ever and it is incumbent upon the international community to implement a new strategic paradigm before time runs out." Its 110-page report coincides with an equally severe warning from Oxfam. In a report for the House of Commons International Development Committee the humanitarian and aid agency warns that the security situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating significantly with the country's problems exacerbated by corruption in central and local government. Senior British and US military commanders privately agree despite their public emphasis on short-term successes against Taliban fighters. The insurgency is divided into a largely poverty-driven "grassroots" component and a concentrated group of "hard-core militant Islamists," says the Senlis Council, which has an office in Kabul and field researchers based in Helmand and Kandahar provinces in southern Afghanistan. Oxfam warns that urgent action is needed to avert humanitarian disaster in Afghanistan where millions face "severe hardship comparable with sub-Saharan Africa." Though the country has received more than $15 billion in aid since 2001, the money is not getting to projects which could lead to sustained improvements in people's lives, says Oxfam.