Climate change brings Kansans dire prediction

Over the next century, eastern Kansas will get warmer and drier. Western Kansas will get warmer and a lot drier. The first in-depth analysis of climate change in Kansas, released Tuesday, offers a bundle of future worries as well as a bleak outlook for agriculture in the state. In fact, water needs for crops in western Kansas will more than double to about 8 inches per year, according to the climate projection analysis for the Climate and Energy Project (CEP). "We are not agriculture experts, but we are certain that a change in the water balance of 8 inches is pretty significant for farming communities and other communities," said Johannes Feddema, a climate researcher at the University of Kansas. And although some scientists question the value of such climate modeling, one agriculture expert said the projections, if true, would reduce western Kansas to desert conditions. "It would have dramatic consequences as far as agriculture is concerned," said Chuck Rice, an agronomy professor at Kansas State University. "It would affect the viability of agriculture in the state of Kansas." Feddema and Nathan Brunsell, also a KU climate researcher, conducted the regional analysis for the CEP, whose mission is to stimulate discussion about the energy future of Kansas. Nancy Jackson, executive director of Lawrence-based CEP, said her group found in a poll last year that most Kansans didn't understand how climate change would affect their region, so she asked the researchers to conduct the analysis. Kansans had heard "a lot about melting sheets and polar bears," Jackson said. "They heard a lot about sea rise. Most Kansans really didn't have a clear sense on how climate change would impact them specifically." Feddema and Brunsell used nearly two dozen climate models and then tested those models against Kansas historical climate data from 1950 to 2000. They discussed three major findings at a news conference Tuesday: *Temperatures. Across the state, temperatures already are warming slightly, especially in summer and fall. Their research projects that current temperatures will increase in all parts of the state by 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, and some regions will see even higher increases–southwest Kansas could warm by 8 degrees. By about 2060, average winter temperatures probably will be above freezing. The number of days when the temperature falls below 65 degrees Fahrenheit and people turn on their furnaces could decrease as much as 25 percent by 2100. And days when temperatures are above 65 could increase by half. Higher temperatures increase human health problems, such as heart disease, respiratory illness and the spread of epidemic disease, the report noted. Fewer hard freezes means an increase in insects such as mosquitoes and ticks. That will lead to more pesticides and more expenses as well as more harm for the environment. The analysis noted that warmer conditions also would increase the growing season, but the benefits are canceled out by the increased need for water. *Precipitation. The amount of precipitation will stay the same, but climate change produces more extreme weather patterns. In eastern Kansas, winter and spring precipitation will increase; in western Kansas, spring precipitation will decrease. Because of increased temperatures, evaporation will take a toll on both sides of the state. Southwestern Kansas could see a "water deficit"–the water needed for crops–of as much as 8 inches per year. Currently, the water needed for irrigation is up to 4 inches in some places. In eastern Kansas, the water deficit will be as much as 4 inches. The need for water management will increase, and extreme weather events will cost governments for preparedness and recovery, the report said. *Drought. When it comes to rainfall, Kansas is split in half. More rain falls to the east, much less falls to the west. The driest parts of the west see only about 9 inches of rain annually, and 40 inches fall in the wettest parts in the east. In the west, wildlife and livestock could suffer and die, and many wildlife species will migrate to other areas, the report said. Native plants face similar challenges. Already, the National Council of State Legislatures has estimated that coping with climate change could cost Kansans up to $1 billion. No similar analysis has been done in Missouri, said Tony Lupo, chairman of the University of Missouri school of natural resources. But he said MU has a proposal for such a project and is seeking funding. At least one climatologist questioned the findings of the Kansas analysis. John Christy, a climate scientist and professor at the University of Alabama, said studies show climate modeling is not accurate. "These have been shown not to accurately represent what happens in the real world," said Christy, a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a scientific body that earned a Nobel Peace Prize for its groundbreaking climate change work.