Climate faulted for four-fold increase in disasters

The number of natural disasters worldwide has increased from about 120 to 500 a year since the 1980s, according to a new study by an international aid organization, which faults climate change for the new and dangerous weather patterns. In releasing the report, entitled "Climate Alarm," Oxfam International said the increase in disasters is in line with climate models developed by the international scientific community. "Rising greenhouse gas emissions are causing climate change, which is triggering an increase in weather-related disasters and must be tackled," said Oxfam at the report's launch early this week. The number of people affected by natural disasters has risen from an average of 174 million a year between 1985 and 1994 to 254 million a year between 1995 and 2004, according to the study. Oxfam's analysis suggests that, across Asia, no less than 248 million people were affected by floods earlier this year and millions of others have become vulnerable to more flooding as a result of rising temperatures. The report shows that there has been six-fold increase in flooding over the past two decades. There were only 60 windstorms and floods in 1980, it says; last year there were 240. Strikingly, there has been no increase in geothermal events, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. "This year we have seen floods in South Asia, across the breadth of Africa, and in Mexico that have affected more than 250 million people," said Oxfam's executive director Jeremy Hobbs. "This is no freak year. It follows a pattern of more frequent, erratic, unpredictable, and extreme weather events." Like many others, Hobbs thinks that humanitarian assistance will be "overwhelmed and recent advances in human development will go into reverse," if urgent actions are not taken to prepare for future disasters. The launch of the Oxfam study coincides with the release of the UN Development Program's (UNDP) annual report on human development that offers similar analysis and conclusions. The major UN report released on Nov. 27 says that climate change poses serious risks to economic and social development in poor countries. "Climate change is a threat to humanity as a whole," said UNDP chief Kemal Dervis in a statement Tuesday. The authors of the UN report warned industrialized countries that failure on their part to take drastic measures against global warming now would lead to disastrous consequences not only for developing countries, but for them too. There is a "very narrow window to act," they said in the report, adding, if that window is missed, a potential increase in temperatures of up to four degrees Celsius could mean no less than 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa would go hungry. Additionally, within the next 10 years, more than 200 million people in the region would have no homes and another 400 million no protection against dangerous diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, according to the UN analysis. According to the Oxfam report, though the colossal crises such as the African famines of the early 1980s, the Bangladesh cyclone of 1991, and the 2004 Asian Tsunami caused an enormous loss of life, today's worrying trend is the increase in small- to medium-sized disasters. The death toll caused by these disasters has risen from an average of 6,000 in 1980 to 14,000 in 2005, the report's authors said, adding that one disaster after another "can push poor people and communities into a downward spiral from which it is difficult to recover." The report, which is highly critical of the role of industrialized countries, says there is a growing tendency among rich nations to dedicate their aid spending to the more "high profile" emergencies or to those countries that are seen "in line with their foreign policy priorities." But for poor people who are dependent upon the land, according to the report, "even a slight" change in the climate will have a long-term impact on their livelihood, regardless of their country's politics, Oxfam said. As part of its efforts to deal with climate-related disasters, Oxfam said it wants the UN and wealthy countries to make humanitarian aid more flexible and improve ways to reduce the risk of disasters. The group is also urging world leaders preparing to attend the UN summit on climate change beginning in Indonesia next week to reach an international agreement that would help developing countries cope with the impacts of global warming. Rich countries should move "first and fastest," Oxfam said, "since they are most responsible for climate change."