Crisis in Lebanon escalates over slain minister

Hundreds of thousands of people gathered in central Beirut on Nov. 24 to witness the funeral of the assassinated Lebanese Christian leader Pierre Gemayel. Police estimated that 800,000 people participated in the rally and funeral. Gemayal was gunned down in his car on Nov. 21. The killing was the sixth of an anti-Syrian figure in Lebanon in less than two years, and provoked condemnation from all quarters and appeals for calm. Gemayel, the 34-year-old minister of industry, was driving through a crowded intersection in the predominantly Christian outskirts of the capital when the killers rammed his car from behind, walked up to the door and shot him point-blank, according to witnesses quoted in local news reports. When the shooting occurred, Lebanon was already in political crisis over efforts by Syrian and Iranian-backed Hezbollah to clip the wings of the ruling anti-Syrian majority coalition, which the Shia Muslim group regards as a puppet of Washington. The cabinet was weakened by the resignation of six ministers from the Syrian-backed opposition, led by Hezbollah. They quit after the collapse of all-party talks on forming a government. Hezbollah pledged massive street protests and civil disobedience aimed at stopping the government, but Gemayel's killing temporarily disrupted those plans. To many Lebanese, the attack was also a painful, symbolically loaded strike against the Christian community. Gemayel was political heir to one of the most influential and controversial Christian dynasties in Lebanon; his family name was shorthand for Christian claims on Lebanese politics. There are two competing theories in Beirut for who killed Gemayel. The US-backed government and its supporters accuse Syria and, in some cases, its ally Hezbollah. They say Syria wants to sabotage an international tribunal to try those accused of killing Rafic Hariri. A UN report links Lebanese and Syrian security services to the Lebanese prime minister's death, but Damascus denies involvement. The theory suggests that, after the killing and the six cabinet ministers' resignations, Syria's agents in Lebanon need kill only two more and they will achieve a collapse of the government, because it will be constitutionally null. A fresh government will block the tribunal, and Damascus will avoid the embarrassment of standing trial over Hariri. The Hariri assassination had led to mass protests, described as the "cedar revolution." The demonstrations, along with international pressure, prompted Syrian troops to leave Lebanon, ending a military presence that had lasted for nearly three decades. Other related theories suggest rogue elements in Syrian security acting outside President Bashar al-Assad's knowledge, seeking to intimidate Lebanese members of Parliament in the run-up to ratification of the UN tribunal. Damascus has condemned Gemayel's murder, while the UN Security Council approved a Lebanese government request for help in investigating his killing. "Syria has nothing to do with this," said Bashar Jaafari, Syria's ambassador to the UN. The other main theory accuses the US or its allies in Lebanon of killing Gemayel to stop the opposition, led by Hezbollah, from bringing down the government and curtailing US influence. It also suggests an attempt to isolate Syria once again, just as the west wants to reengage Damascus over possible help in Iraq. The attack came a day after Syria and Iraq reestablished diplomatic relations for the first time in 20 years, even as Washington accused Damascus of allowing safe haven and free passage to insurgents fighting US troops in Iraq. John Bolton, Washington's envoy to the United Nations, wasted no time to point the finger directly at Damascus. "Eight of the last 10 political assassinations in Lebanon have been against anti-Syrian politicians," he said. "I think that people can draw their own conclusions." Proponents of this theory believe the killing only makes it harder for Lebanese opponents of the tribunal in its current form to vote against it, for fear of being associated with a pro-Syrian agenda. "If anything this assassination has expedited the decision in the UN to pass the resolution," said Ghorayeb, referring to security council members Russia and Qatar, who had reservations, but came on board hours after Gemayel's killing. After silence during Gemayel's funeral prayers, the sea of protesters in Martyrs' Square broke into anti-Syrian political speeches, chanting and music. Banners demanding the resignation of the Syrian-backed president, Emile Lahoud, were held aloft. One, referring to al-Assad, read: "Bashar agent, get out of Baadba [the presidential palace]."