Experts fear Afghanistan could become the next Iraq

Five years after US troops ousted the Taliban regime, Afghanistan is still embroiled in war, drug trafficking and instability. Announcing a 3,200-troop boost in US forces in the country, President Bush bluntly demanded on Feb. 15 that NATO allies step up their commitment to the war there, ahead of an expected major Taliban offensive when the weather improves in the spring. In his speech, at the neoconservative stronghold of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, Bush was clearly taking aim at the likes of Germany, which does not allow its troops to take the field in the south and east of the country, where Taliban forces are strongest. The latest troop increase will boost total US strength in Afghanistan to 27,000, the highest level since the 2001 invasion. Of that number, 15,000 will be deployed as part of the NATO force, with the remainder operating as special forces or as trainers of an Afghan army due to be boosted from the current 32,000 to 70,000 by the end of 2008. Attacks spiked last year, making 2006 the deadliest year since the US invasion in 2001, and Bush suggested that 2007 could see even more intense combat. As an indicator of the severity of the situation, two days before Bush's speech it was announced that an Army unit that had been scheduled to go to Iraq is being sent to Afghanistan instead. The Pentagon said that the 173rd Airborne Brigade of some 3,200 troops will deploy this spring. US commanders are bracing for a spring offensive by Taliban insurgents that will test the staying power of the fragile US-backed Afghan government. Skeptics fear that the renewed focus on Afghanistan may be too little and too late. "We have our finger in the dike because our resources and attention were turned toward Iraq," said Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), a former Navy admiral who served in both conflicts. "This is the real front in the war on terrorism. It's a daunting task, more daunting than it had to be because we let the opportunity almost slip away." Administration officials and US military commanders agree that Afghanistan is grappling with potentially crippling challenges. The government of President Hamid Karzai has a shaky hold on power, the Taliban continue to launch attacks from their haven along the Afghan-Pakistan border and opium production has increased to all-time highs. "A point could be reached at which the government of Afghanistan becomes irrelevant to its people, and the goal of establishing a democratic, moderate, self-sustaining state could be lost forever," Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry, the former top US commander in Afghanistan, told the House Armed Services Committee on Feb. 13. Government officials and outside experts agree that the biggest threat isn't a Taliban military takeover, it's the possibility that the Karzai government could collapse. "The Taliban are not going to roll on a tank column into Kabul. They are weak militarily. But the government is very weak politically. Even some small symbolic victories by the Taliban could lead to a political crisis," said Barnett Rubin, an Afghanistan expert at New York University. Bush has asked Congress for $6.7 billion in emergency funding to help train Afghan security forces and rebuild the country, the first installment in a $10.6 billion package for Afghanistan over the next two years. Until now, US aid to Afghanistan has averaged less than $3 billion a year.