Hezbollah works its way quietly

With quiet campaigning and moderate talk, Hezbollah is building its strength for Lebanon's June 7 parliamentary elections - and the Hezbollah and its allies stand a good chance of winning. That could mean a stunning shake-up for one of the Middle East's most volatile countries, replacing a pro-US government with a coalition dominated from behind the scenes by Hezbollah, the political movement and fighter group. The US and Israel consider Hezbollah a terrorist organisation, and their biggest fear is that a win by the group and its allies would increase the sway of Iran and Syria. The US ambassador in Beirut has already expressed concern, and Hezbollah's opponents warn the consequence may be the West isolating Lebanon and Washington reducing its millions in aid. But Hezbollah has taken the strategy of a low-key election campaign with a moderate message, aiming to show that a victory by its coalition should not scare anyone. Hezbollah's leader, Shaikh Hassan Nasrallah, has even said that if the coalition wins, it would invite its opponents to join in a national unity government to ensure stability. His deputy, Shaikh Naim Kassem, says the West will have to accept the election results. Kassem said foreign diplomats are already approaching Hezbollah, "some wanting to open a new page." Britain has said it is willing to talk to Hezbollah's political wing and a Hezbollah member of the current parliament recently travelled to London. The moderate tone is in part because Hezbollah does not want to suffer the same fate as its Palestinian ally Hamas, which won legislative elections in 2006 but was boycotted by the West and crippled by an Israeli-led closure of the Gaza Strip. "There are pitfalls for winning or losing," said Hezbollah expert Amal Sa'ad-Gorayeb. "They [Hezbollah] see the dangers of winning." Nevertheless, a Hezbollah win would almost certainly mean changes that would dismay the West and Israel. It would mean less pressure from Lebanon's government to rein in Hezbollah's arsenal of rockets pointed at the Jewish state, which it employed in its 2006 war with Israel, and more backing for efforts to change Lebanon's electoral system to solidify Shiite power further. Israel's worry is "whether Iran and Syria will succeed in adding Lebanon to their bloc," said Israeli political analyst Barry Rubin. "It would be a huge defeat for the West." So far, Hezbollah has campaigned quietly, with none of its trademark fiery anti-Israel rallies. Its 11 candidates have been holding town hall meetings in villages, focusing on promises to root out corruption and improve government performance, and stressing government by consensus. By contrast, leaders from the US-backed majority have held three splashy rallies since February before several thousand people in a Beirut hall, with balloons, confetti and speakers projected on a giant screen. Nasrallah says Hezbollah knows that trying to dominate Lebanon's politics would destabilise the country, which in the past four years nearly tumbled into a repeat of the 1975-90 civil war as the pro-Syrian and pro-US camps struggled for the upper hand. "In such a sectarian system, it is in the interest of Lebanon and its stability that there is understanding and partnership among Lebanese in running their country's affairs," he said in a recent televised speech. Under Lebanon's complex political system, no group can rule alone. The 128-member legislature must be half Christian and half-Muslim, with the Christians divided among Orthodox and Catholic parties and Muslims among Shiite, Sunni, Druze and Alawite sects. Moreover, in any government, the prime minister must be a Sunni, so Hezbollah would need allies from that sect.