Iraq was terrible mistake, says thinktank

The decision to invade Iraq was a "terrible mistake" that would shape British Prime Minister Tony Blair's legacy for years to come, a leading thinktank said on Dec. 19. A Chatham House paper on 10 years of foreign policy under Blair concluded that its root failure was an inability to influence US President George W. Bush. While the report said there had been qualified successes in Blair's first term, the decision to provide diplomatic cover for Bush's decision to invade Iraq was the defining moment of his foreign policy and premiership. "It will shape his legacy–for better or for worse–for many years to come," it concluded. As so often with British prime ministers, Blair thought unwavering public support for the US would bring private influence and lead to changes in US policy favoring British interests, but this had not happened. Chatham House director Victor Bulmer-Thomas said there had been an "inability to influence the Bush administration in any significant way, despite the sacrifice–military, political and financial–that the United Kingdom has made." Given the Byzantine complexity of Washington politics, it was always unrealistic to think that outside powers–however loyal–could expect to have much influence on the US decision-making process, he said. "The bilateral relationship with the United States may be 'special' to Britain, but the US has never described it as more than 'close'.... Tony Blair has learnt the hard way that loyalty in international politics counts for very little," the report said. It said there was no evidence that British pressure was responsible for Bush's announcement that the US would accept a two-state solution in the Middle East, because this was simply a restatement of policy under the Clinton administration. The report added that, whoever was the prime minister in the future, there would "no longer be unconditional support for US initiatives in foreign policy." In the absence of UN support for a humanitarian intervention in Iraq, the paper said it had been a "terrible mistake" to emphasize Saddam Hussein's alleged weapons of mass destruction as a justification for war. "The jury is still out" on the extent to which Blair knew the claims about Iraqi WMD were "overblown or even fabricated," the report said. The decision to commit British troops in the absence of a UN security council resolution "drove a horse and cart" through the principle Blair himself laid out in a speech in Chicago in 1999 setting out a "doctrine of international community." The report also said it was "unforgivable" that Blair had failed to foresee the consequences of a Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan, given the impact on heroin use on Britain's streets. In contrast, it said his most positive legacy in foreign affairs would be his determined advocacy of the need to tackle climate change.