Little evidence found of Iran-Iraq arms link

If there is anywhere Iran could easily stir up trouble in Iraq, it would be in Diyala, a rugged province along the border between the two nations. The combination of Sunni Arab militants and Shiite Muslim militiamen with ties to Iran has fueled waves of sectarian and political violence there. The province is bisected by long-traveled routes leading from Iran to Baghdad and Shiite holy cities farther south in Iraq. In Diyala, evidence of Iranian involvement in Iraq is limited. US troops have found mortars and antitank mines with Iranian markings dated 2006, said US Army Col. David W. Sutherland, who oversees the province. But there has been little sign of more advanced weaponry crossing the border, and no Iranian agents have been found. In his speech this month outlining the new US strategy in Iraq, President Bush promised to "seek out and destroy" Iranian networks that he said were providing "advanced weaponry and training to our enemies." For all the aggressive rhetoric, however, the Bush administration has provided scant evidence to support these claims. Nor have reporters traveling with US troops seen extensive signs of Iranian involvement. During a recent sweep through a stronghold of Sunni insurgents here, a single Iranian machine gun turned up among dozens of arms caches US troops uncovered. British officials have similarly accused Iran of meddling in Iraqi affairs, but say they have not found Iranian-made weapons in areas they patrol. The lack of publicly disclosed evidence has led to questions about whether the administration is overstating its case. Some suggest Bush and his aides are pointing to Iran to deflect blame for US setbacks in Iraq. Others suggest they are laying the foundation for a military strike against Iran. Few doubt that Iran is seeking to extend its influence in Iraq. But the groups in Iraq that have received the most Iranian support are not those that have led attacks against US forces. Instead, they are nominal US allies. The Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, one of the two largest parties in parliament, is believed to be the biggest beneficiary of Iranian help. The Shiite group was based in Iran during Saddam Hussein's reign, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard trained and equipped its Badr Brigade militia. But the Supreme Council also has strong US connections. Bush played host to the head of the party, Abdelaziz Hakim, at the White House in December, and administration officials have frequently cited Adel Abdul Mehdi, another party leader, as a person they would like to see as Iraq's prime minister. The Islamic Dawa Party of Iraq's current prime minister, Nouri Maliki, also has strong ties to Iran. Some US officials have also suggested that Iran, a Shiite theocracy, has provided aid to the Sunni insurgents, who have led most of the attacks against US forces. Private analysts and other US officials doubt that. Evidence is stronger that the Iranians are supporting a Shiite group that has attacked US forces, the Mahdi Army militia, which is loyal to cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. US officials have declined to provide documentation of seized Iranian ordnance despite repeated requests. The US military often releases photographs of other weapons finds. British government officials, including Prime Minister Tony Blair, have also accused Iran of supplying advanced explosive devices to Iraq. Blair said a year ago that the weapons bore the hallmarks of Iran or Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia in Lebanon. But British officers stationed in Iraq at the time said they had seized no such weapons in the districts for which they had responsibility. "We do have intelligence which suggests that weapons and ammunition are being smuggled in from Iran," Maj. David Gell, a spokesman for British forces in Basra, said last week. "We don't always manage to find any." US military officials in Diyala have had the same experience. No munitions or personnel have been seized at the border, officers said. Despite the lack of definitive evidence to support claims of Iranian support for the Iraqi insurgency, the US has continued to place diplomatic and military pressure on Iran. In addition to the US claims concerning Iranian funding for armed groups in Iraq, Iran is under pressure to end its nuclear program. A second US aircraft carrier group now heading to the Middle East is Washington's way of warning Iran about what US officials see as Iranian moves to dominate the region. The aircraft carrier John C. Stennis and accompanying ships are headed to the Persian Gulf to join the carrier group already in the region, the Dwight D. Eisenhower. The Stennis is expected to arrive in late February. According to a former US intelligence analyst, US contingency planning for military action against Iran goes beyond limited strikes and would effectively unleash a war against the country. "I've seen some of the planning.... You're not talking about a surgical strike," said Wayne White, who was a top Middle East analyst for the State Department's bureau of intelligence and research until March 2005. "You're talking about a war against Iran" that likely would destabilize the Middle East for years, White told the Middle East Policy Council, a Washington think tank.