National security experts grim on terror war

A new survey of more than 100 US foreign policy experts–both Republicans and Democrats, as well as retired military and intelligence professionals–has found deep pessimism over the "global war on terror" and even deeper pessimism over the war in Iraq. According to the survey, the second in the last six months carried out by Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for American Progress, two out of three foreign policy experts oppose President Bush's plans to increase troop levels in Iraq, while nearly nine out of 10 say the war there is undermining US national security. Overall, three out of four respondents disagreed with the assertion that Washington "is winning the war on terror," while 81 percent said the world is becoming "more dangerous" to the United States and its people. The survey also found wide, although narrowing differences compared to six months ago, between expert opinion and the views of the general public on a range of issues related to Iraq and the "war on terrorism." Experts were significantly more pessimistic than the public at large and voiced considerably less confidence in the Bush administration's performance. The survey, called "The Terrorism Index" and published in the upcoming issue of Foreign Policy, is based on interviews with former senior government officials who have served in both Republican and Democratic administrations, as well as independent analysts, experts and journalists who have covered national security issues. Eighty percent of respondents have served in the US government, and more than half in the executive branch, including in the White House or in top cabinet posts. Twenty-six percent served in the military and 18 percent in the intelligence community. As to their political leanings, 30 percent of respondents identified themselves as "conservative," 42 percent said they were "moderate," and 44 percent "liberal." But the survey organizers weighted the results so that the views of self-described "conservatives" were given equal representation with those of the "liberals." When broken down ideologically, 43 percent of the conservatives polled said they believed the US is winning the "war on terror," compared to 50 percent of conservatives who disagreed. Only five percent of both moderates and liberals said they thought Washington was winning. By contrast, 46 percent of the general public told interviewers in a Pew Center for the People & the Press survey conducted last November that Washington is winning the war on terrorism, although that number has shrunk to around 33 percent in the most recent polling. Asked whether they believed Bush had a plan to protect the country from terrorism, seven out of 10 of the expert respondents–including nearly 40 percent of the self-described conservatives–said no. By contrast, 51 percent of the public said last November that Bush does indeed have a plan. Experts were particularly pessimistic on Iraq and US policy there. Eighty-eight percent of the experts said the war is having a negative impact on US national security. Asked to rate the administration's job in Iraq on a 10 point scale, 92 percent of respondents–including 82 percent of conservatives–described it as below five. Fifty-nine percent of the entire group gave the administration the lowest possible rating (1-2), including a plurality of 48 percent of conservatives. Significantly, among 81 percent of experts who said the world is becoming "more dangerous" to the US, a large plurality identified the Iraq War as "one principal reason" why. Only six months ago, the reason most cited by the experts who believed the world was becoming more dangerous was anger and hostility among Muslims. Only one-third of the expert pool agreed with the administration's notion that Iraq has become the "central front on the war on terrorism," while two-thirds said they disagreed. That may help explain why two-thirds of the experts said they disagreed with Bush's plan to increase troop levels in Iraq, but 69 percent said they favored adding troops in Afghanistan. In the last six months, according to the survey, expert confidence about the situation in Afghanistan has fallen sharply, according to the survey. Asked to rate the impact of 14 specific policies or actions by the administration, the experts cited the war in Iraq as the most negative by far, followed by the detention and treatment of terrorist suspects at Guantánamo and elsewhere, and US positions during the recent conflict between Israel and Hezbollah and on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.