New study reveals staggering cost of Mideast conflicts

Countries hit by conflicts in the Middle East have lost 12 trillion dollars over two decades through squandered development and livelihoods, said a new study launched Friday. Presented as the first dispassionate attempt to quantify the impact of conflicts in the region, it was immediately endorsed by several countries that have acted as peace brokers in the region, including Norway and Switzerland. The report, by the India-based Strategic Foresight Group, revealed a massive price tag for all sides since 1991 due to the destruction wrought by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, strife in Lebanon and the US invasion of Iraq. But it also underlined the equally huge potential of a comprehensive peace for countries and territories in the region and their inhabitants, predicting that it would unleash growth from the Mediterranean deep into the Gulf. Sundeep Waslekar, who headed the study with experts from the regions concerned, said individual incomes for Israelis and Palestinians were half what they would be if peace had been accomplished at the Madrid conference in 1991. For Iraqis, per capita incomes had been cut to one third over the same period, he added. In the event of peace, an average Israeli family would increase its income by 4,429 dollars per year in 2010 even if Israel paid compensation to Palestinian refugees and moved more than 150,000 settlers out of the West Bank, according to the report. The income of Palestinian territories would more than double even if they remained in their current shape and the study suggested roughly equal gains to be had on both sides of the fence. Unveiling the report at the United Nations offices here, Waslekar said the choice was fundamentally down to one between continued "devastation" and a peace accord. "If they don't make the choice the cost will continue to mount," he underlined. Even countries on the periphery could gain, said the study, positing a rise in household incomes in Jordan, which houses hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees, of 1,250 dollars. But the study also highlighted the massive cost of the US invasion in Iraq and its aftermath. Without the conflict and sanctions, Iraq's national income would have been more than 38 times larger, at 2.2 trillion dollars, it estimated. The study has already received official backing from Norway, Qatar, Switzerland and Turkey. Swiss foreign ministry official Thomas Greminger said they hoped it would encourage the public and leaders in the Middle East to reflect on "how much they have lost" and on "how much more they could lose." "The report gives further ground for international actors on why they should intensify their actions for peace in the Middle East," he added. British politician John Alderdice, one of the backers of the study, described the findings as "truly eyewatering." Alderdice, who was active in the peace process in Northern Ireland, stressed that it sought to address one half of the peace incentive: warring parties sought a settlement when each realised they couldn't win and the costs were too great. However, Waslekar underlined that the exercise also had limitations. "There are costs you can't measure - like the cost in human dignity," he pointed out.