No way out for nearly 3 million trapped in cycle of despair in Darfur's camps

Nine-year-old Mastoura stands amid the flies and the stench of Abu Shouk camp, silent and unsmiling. She finally recalls she has lived in Abu Shouk for "four or five years"–she can't really remember how long–and, like her family and most other people in the camp, is too scared to go back to her home village. Standing next to her in the busy fruit market, Adam, 14, explains: "Outside, it is not safe. Every day there are bullets, bullets, you cannot go out. They take the money, they take the mobiles, they even take your clothes." "They," he says, can mean pro-government Arab militias (sometimes called Janjaweed), rival rebel groups, or criminal gangs. A woman selling sun-dried locusts on a dusty mat shouts agreement. In fact, everyone agrees. Even though the government has declared a ceasefire and says it is OK to go home, nobody trusts the government. It is better to stay in the relative safety of the camps where at least regular food is available. An estimated 2.7 million people are scattered in camps across western Sudan, dependent on an international community that has no clear idea what to do with them, no sure way of protecting them and has repeatedly failed to find a solution. Although the violence in Darfur has fallen significantly since its peak five years ago, both its victims and those who help them remain trapped in a cycle of fear, despair and powerlessness. "We have created an open-ended, ongoing $3bn peacekeeping and humanitarian process that chiefly serves to maintain the miserable status quo, this stasis of misery. There is no end in sight," said a western diplomat in Khartoum. "Under the status quo now prevailing there is a certain level of violence that has become normal, large parts of the countryside remain depopulated, pro-government and rebel groups work as bandits, for and against each other, Unamid [the UN peacekeeping mission in Darfur] is ineffective, carjacking and robbery has become a regional industry, and millions are stuck in the camps. "People say it can't go on indefinitely like this. But unless something radical changes, it will." John Holmes, the UN's humanitarian chief who recently visited Darfur, said only a political settlement would ultimately end the state of limbo in which the internally displaced persons (IDPs) are held. "We desperately need a solution quickly. We are spending $1bn a year on aid. That money might be better spent in other ways," he said. "There is a little bit of dependency culture. The services in the camps, although they're not fantastic, in terms of providing water, education, health services, are better for many people than in their home villages. But life in the camps is not fun and most of them can't move around very much. Aid workers killed "I don't think people will go home in any significant numbers until there is a political process … the frustration if you're on the humanitarian side is that we can keep this sticking plaster on this wound but it doesn't heal the wound. In a sense you are giving more time for people to play political games." Alun McDonald, who directs Oxfam's work in Abu Shouk and other camps, said security was deteriorating after a respite that followed the now defunct 2006 Darfur peace agreement. "People are still scared. There's a huge security problem. The violence has assumed a settled pattern. Every few months you get an upsurge in attacks and bombings," he said. "Many IDPs have been in the camps for five years. They don't want to leave and they can't anyway, they have no work, no homes. It's still an emergency–300,000 people were displaced (or re-displaced) last year–but it's also become a long-term chronic problem." Aid agencies such as Oxfam are increasingly harassed by bandits who target their vehicles and supply convoys, McDonald said. "We started using old rented vans instead of Landcruisers but they stole those as well. Now we're using donkey carts. It means we can't get to some rural areas and villages for up to a month at a time." More than 170 aid workers were abducted and 11 killed last year, according to a report by Human Rights Watch and 14 other non-governmental groups. Attacks on aid convoys have risen sharply. Independent observers say they have seen little evidence to support government claims that the camps are used by rebel groups to recruit fighters, store weapons and launch attacks. Yet abuses of the UN-run sanctuaries almost certainly exist. Some refugees reportedly assist relatives among the insurgents. Others are said to participate in criminal rings that deal in stolen food or send hijacked UN and aid agency vehicles for sale in Chad and Cameroon. In El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur province, where the UN's expanding presence is causing a property boom, some residents are said to have moved into Abu Shouk and rented out their homes at inflated prices. Attempts to exploit Darfur's misery are not confined to the Sudanese. NGO staff working on the ground warn of a tendency among western pressure groups, particularly faith-based groups in the US, to exaggerate the situation for political or religious reasons. "They push this simplistic idea that there is a genocide by Arabs against Africans–which is not the case and never was," one aid worker said. "There's a tendency to simplify and spin. Darfur's so much more complicated than that. There are so many different tribal groups, so many interests involved. It's unfortunate because it gives the government ammunition to say it's all a conspiracy against Sudan and it's all made up." The defences surrounding the UN peacekeepers' headquarters in El-Fasher, including watchtowers, sandbag walls and razor wire, testify to the beleaguered nature of the mission. Noureddine Mezni, Unamid's spokesman, admitted that holding the line in Darfur had grown more complicated since the 2006 peace process imploded. "Then we were dealing with three groups. Now God only knows how many factions there are on the ground." Most estimates put the figure at more than 20. "It's a difficult mission, a risky mission," Mezni said. "We have lost 11 men since December [2007], killed in action. They were attacked by armed groups. This mission is unique. It's the first to combine the UN and the African Union as a hybrid. It's a peacekeeping operation where there is no peace to keep. And we lack vital means to do our job. So it is kind of mission impossible." Mezni complained in particular about Unamid's lack of military aircraft, despite repeated appeals to UN members, and delays in committing troops. The force was operating at about half strength in December, with about 12,000 personnel, although he expected numbers to rise to about 80% of full complement by March. "We are struggling every day to bring some relief to the population and some protection for the IDPs. We are doing our best. We are overstretched," he said. Despite this, measurable progress was being made, Mezni said. The government was proving more co-operative, a new ceasefire monitoring mechanism was under discussion, and round-the-clock camp security patrols were gradually being extended. But a political settlement is desperately needed–and western observers in Khartoum are not optimistic. The expected indictment for genocide and war crimes in Darfur of President Omar al-Bashir by the international criminal court may have temporarily incentivised his government to pursue peace talks and increase co-operation with Unamid. But rebel participation has been half-hearted or non-existent. According to one western diplomat, that is because the main groups, the Sudan Liberation Movement and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), are waiting to see how Bashir will be weakened by any arrest warrant. There is speculation that he may be forced to stand down. The chilling alternative is that, cornered, he may decide to fight. Military build-up The threat of a sudden, violent explosion is constant. Fighting erupted recently not far from Abu Shouk, on the outskirts of El-Fasher. And the UN warned this week that a military build-up by government and JEM forces around Muhajeria, in south Darfur, was causing "grave concern". Darfur's tragedy did not have to continue indefinitely, Mezni said. If all parties–and the international community–could summon the necessary political will, in the end, people would go home, taking children like Mastoura with them. "If we create the right conditions, nobody would deliberately stay away from his family, his village, his house, his farm. Of course, we can't force ¬people to go home. But if it is safe, and if there is compensation, they will go."