Nominee to coordinate war offers grim forecast on Iraq

President Bush's nominee to be war czar said on June 7 that conditions in Iraq have not improved significantly despite the influx of US troops in recent months and predicted that, absent major political reform, violence will continue to rage over the next year. Lt. Gen. Douglas E. Lute, tapped by Bush to serve as a new high-powered White House coordinator of the war, told senators at a confirmation hearing that Iraqi factions "have shown so far very little progress" toward the reconciliation necessary to stem the bloodshed. If that does not change, he said, "we're not likely to see much difference in the security situation" a year from now. The appraisals by Lute and intelligence officials underscore broader doubts in Washington about whether the Iraqi government can meet political goals set by Bush and Congress in the recently enacted legislation on war spending. The legislation threatens cuts in US reconstruction aid if Iraqis do not meet those benchmarks, such as passing a new oil-distribution law and readmitting lower-level members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party into the government. The legislation requires progress reports from the administration in July and September. As the president's point man on Iraq, Lute would be charged with helping to ensure that Iraqis can achieve those goals. But he expressed doubt about whether the Iraqis have the ability to change and whether the United States has the ability to force them to do so. Lute's dour assessment mirrors the views of US intelligence officials, who told the Senate Armed Services Committee in a closed session last month that trends in Iraq remain negative and that the prospect for political movement by the nation's feuding Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds appears marginal. The conclusions largely reflected the findings of the last National Intelligence Estimate, released in January, before Bush announced his decision to send nearly 30,000 more troops to Iraq, suggesting that the intelligence community does not think the force buildup has changed the outlook nearly five months later. Lute asked: "Where are we today? Not where any of us would like."