Opposition claims fraud in Mexican election

Supporters of populist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) presidential candidate Andres Manuel López Obrador –in a crowd estimated between 100,000 and 400,000–turned out in Mexico City's Zocalo Square on July 8 to protest what they said was a fraudulent conservative victory in Mexico's July 2 presidential election. They cheered their candidate, who indicated that he would not accept defeat without a legal challenge, which he filed formally on July 9. He called for additional rallies this week. Government officials and international analysts and observers, however, suggested the razor-thin margin of the National Action Party (PAN) candidate's victory was nonetheless legitimate. The elections underscored class and regional divisions in Mexican politics. The vote count indicated that the majority of states in the north of the country, which are economically the most powerful, preferred the conservative PAN candidate, Felipe Calderón, whereas in the capital and the southern states, where poverty is more widespread, people voted for the leftist PRD candidate. But the results also indicated disenchantment with the political process, as roughly 40 percent of eligible voters abstained. Calderón was declared the victor over López Obrador after a final vote count announced on July 6. The declared margin–35.88 percent for Calderón versus 35.31 for López Obrador, or about 220,000 votes out of 41 million cast–would be the closest in Mexico's brief history of two-party elections. Both candidates declared victory after the final vote count was announced. López Obrador, a former mayor of Mexico City and a fiery, anti-free-market populist with a long history of organizing street protests, demanded a vote-by-vote recount charging fraud and declared he would challenge the count in the courts and in the streets. Addressing the crowd in Zocalo Square on July 8, López Obrador denounced "an economic and political power group that is used to winning at any cost without any scruples. The country doesn't matter to them, and even less the suffering of the majority of Mexican people." His attack on class divisions struck an emotional chord with his followers, some of whom cried as they pressed against metal barricades to cheer their candidate. "They stole our votes, and I feel so impotent," said a weeping Norma Zambrano Falcón, 31, a housewife. "It was a massive fraud; those right-wingers sure know how to cheat," said Angel Farfan, 60, as the crowd in Zocalo Square chanted "Obrador presidente," and held up banners that proclaimed: "No to bloody fraud." López Obrador said his lawyers would demonstrate to the courts that the entire electoral process was warped. "The process was plagued by irregularities," López Obrador said at a news conference ahead of the rally. "The votes were counted but were badly counted. They were counted to favor the right-wing candidate," he said, claiming electoral authorities manipulated the process. He also claimed that President Vicente Fox illegally interfered in the campaign in favor of Calderón, that the PAN had far exceeded campaign spending limits, and that the governing party bought votes. After filing his appeal, López Obrador screened two hidden camera videos which he claimed would prove his claim of irregularities. It was not possible to verify the authenticity or content of the videos, or whether the content had any bearing on the race for president. Still, the screening of the videos at a news conference added to Mexico's strong sense of political uncertainty. After the screening, political analysts and experts in election law were abuzz with speculation. The leftist leader's attitude surprised most political analysts and observers, who considered the electoral process and the final count transparent and above suspicion. Although they acknowledged the existence of some irregularities, they said these were minor and had no impact on the result. Former president of Mexico's Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) José Woldenberg, who has been associated with the political left all his life, stated that it was "impossible" to commit electoral fraud under Mexico's present institutions and laws. International observers described Mexico's electoral procedures and the work of the independent IFE as exemplary. They especially stressed the fact that the votes are handled and counted by ordinary citizens who are randomly chosen and then trained. The EU sent some 80 observers to Mexico's elections, who with other local and foreign observers made up a total of around 25,000. With respect to the changing fortunes of the candidates during last week's vote counting process, in which López Obrador was leading at first and was finally overtaken by Calderón, analysts explained that the last districts to submit returns were in the north of the country, where the governing party candidate prevailed. Calderón, a Harvard-educated free-marketeer and former Energy Minister claimed victory in front of cheering supporters. "Starting today, let us help Mexico to begin a new era of peace, of reconciliation," he said–an unlikely prospect after a bitter election campaign. News that Calderón appeared to have won rallied the peso, stocks and bonds. Calderón has taken a congratulatory phone call from President Bush. He has made clear that he will not renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and he wants to stem the flow of illegal immigrants into the US by attracting investment for more jobs back home. Washington regards the former Energy Minister as a likely ally. The US certainly prefers him to López Obrador, whose class-based rhetoric and agenda have strong echoes of President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, a declared enemy of the US. Mexicans hope their still-young two multi-party system of politics can survive this election, however it plays out. John M. Ackerman, an expert on electoral law at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, argued that a recount would strengthen democracy by removing public doubt about the transparency of the process. He said he believed that López Obrador had shown enough evidence to raise the tribunal's attention. "They have a real case," he said of the López Obrador campaign. The federal tribunal has until Sept. 6 to consider López Obrador's appeal. The tribunal would also have the final decision on whether to carry out a new ballot-by-ballot count. Whoever is confirmed as President Vicente Fox's successor will face strong opposition in Congress, where no party holds an absolute majority and the atmosphere is fraught with suspicion and friction.