Revolution, flashmobs and brain chips: A vision of Britain's future

Information chips implanted in the brain. Electromagnetic pulse weapons. The middle classes becoming revolutionary, taking on the role of Marx's proletariat. The population of countries in the Middle East increasing by 132 percent, while Europe's drops as fertility falls. "Flashmobs"–groups rapidly mobilized by criminal gangs or terrorists groups. This is the world in 30 years' time envisaged by a British Ministry of Defense (MoD) team responsible for painting a picture of the "future strategic context" likely to face Britain's armed forces. It includes an "analysis of the key risks and shocks." Rear Admiral Chris Parry, head of the MoD's Development, Concepts & Doctrine Center which drew up the report, describes the assessments as "probability-based, rather than predictive." The 90-page report comments on widely discussed issues such as the growing economic importance of India and China, the militarization of space and even what it calls "declining news quality" with the rise of "internet-enabled, citizen-journalists" and pressure to release stories "at the expense of facts." It includes other potential developments that are not so often discussed. New weapons An electromagnetic pulse will probably become operational by 2035 able to destroy all communications systems in a selected area or be used against a "world city" such as an international business service hub. The development of neutron weapons which destroy living organs but not buildings "might make a weapon of choice for extreme ethnic cleansing in an increasingly populated world." The use of unmanned weapons platforms would enable the "application of lethal force without human intervention, raising consequential legal and ethical issues." The "explicit use" of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons and devices delivered by unmanned vehicles or missiles. Technology By 2035, an implantable "information chip" could be wired directly to the brain. A growing pervasiveness of information communications technology will enable states, terrorists or criminals, to mobilize "flashmobs," challenging security forces to match this potential agility coupled with an ability to concentrate forces quickly in a small area. Marxism "The middle classes could become a revolutionary class, taking the role envisaged for the proletariat by Marx," says the report. The thesis is based on a growing gap between the middle classes and the super-rich on one hand and an urban under-class threatening social order: "The world's middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest." Marxism could also be revived, it says, because of global inequality. An increased trend towards moral relativism and pragmatic values will encourage people to seek the "sanctuary provided by more rigid belief systems, including religious orthodoxy and doctrinaire political ideologies, such as populism and Marxism." Pressures leading to social unrest By 2010 more than 50 percent of the world's population will be living in urban rather than rural environments, leading to social deprivation and "new instability risks," and the growth of shanty towns. By 2035, that figure will rise to 60 percent. Migration will increase. Globalization may lead to levels of international integration that effectively bring inter-state warfare to an end. But it may lead to "inter-communal conflict"–communities with shared interests transcending national boundaries and resorting to the use of violence. Population and resources The global population is likely to grow to 8.5 billion in 2035, with less developed countries accounting for 98 percent of that. Some 87 percent of people under the age of 25 live in the developing world. Demographic trends, which will exacerbate economic and social tensions, have serious implications for the environment–including the provision of clean water and other resources–and for international relations. The population of sub-Saharan Africa will increase over the period by 81 percent, and that of Middle Eastern countries by 132 percent.