Rising sea levels threaten the Florida coast

A dramatic rise in sea levels predicted by researchers at a major US government agency has renewed concerns among scientists and community planners about the fate of Florida's coastlines. According to "The Probability of Sea Level Rise," a study written by two US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) scientists, sea level rise for the southwest Florida area could range anywhere from 2.8 to 10.6 inches by 2025. The consequences could include higher storm surges, saltwater intrusion into freshwater catches and, in the longer term, the disappearance of existing coastal areas and wetlands. The report, which was originally released in 1995, became a subject of debate last week when it was widely released for the first time by Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER), a national alliance of local, state and federal environmental resource professionals. "We want to get people to start talking about how their Florida state government will deal with this," said Daniel Trescott, the principle planner for the Southwest Florida Regional Council. Trescott, whose main concern is how to mitigate potential environmental impacts, works with one of 11 regional planning councils whose public mandate is to serve as a bridge between communities and their state and local governments. "There is no question that growth management in Florida can be controlled by a few people, such as the governor and some secretaries of state agencies. But it all comes back to the fact that people want to build their homes near the water," Trescott said. The boom in construction of homes and businesses along Florida's coasts has had other negative effects on the state's ecosystems, he said, adding that he does not believe that the state or federal governments are incorporating the data on sea levels into their long-range development plans. Trescott presented a report based on the EPA study and data gathered over the last century by tide gauges in Key West and other sites at the Southwest Florida Symposium, a meeting of scientists to discuss issues affecting the local environment that was held in Fort Myers. According to Trescott's report, if the rate predicted by the EPA models proves to be accurate, by the end of this century, the sea level would rise two feet, and an additional three feet by the end of the 22nd century. Not all scientists agree with Trescott's predictions. "Those numbers [from Trescott's SFS briefing] are somewhat speculative at the present rate of rises," said Bob Weisberg, a 30-year professor of physical oceanography at the University of South Florida's St. Petersburg campus. "But if such things as global warming and the melting of the icecaps start going at a faster rate than what is now happening, those numbers are within the realm of possibility," he added. Estimates by the Center for Coastal Ecology at Mote Marine Laboratory place the current rate of sea level rise in the Florida region at less than one-tenth of an inch per year, but some scientists and environmentalists say this would almost certainly accelerate due to global warming. The impacts of rising sea levels are already being felt in South Pacific islands like Tonga and Tuvalu, which have reported sea level rises of 4 inches in just the past dozen years, according to the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project. In Fiji, a group of Pacific islands comprising over 7,000 square miles, sea level has risen by over 3 inches and will be at least another 12 inches higher by 2050.