Shinawatra to return in triumph after voters humiliate generals

Thaksin Shinawatra, the deposed Thai Prime Minister, is poised to make a triumphant return from exile in London after his supporters won a convincing victory in the general election on Dec. 23. With all but a few votes counted, the People Power Party, a thinly disguised vehicle for the policies of Thaksin, was on course to win about 233 of 480 seats in Thailand's parliament, just eight short of an absolute majority. But it is well placed to lead a coalition government with the cooperation of smaller parties and to carry out its promise to bring Thaksin back to Thailand after he was deposed in a military coup 15 months ago. One PPP leader said that Thaksin will return to Bangkok on Feb. 14, Valentine's Day, as a token of his love for the Thai people. Thaksin faces charges of corruption in a Bangkok court, but leaders of the PPP have promised to restore the political rights of him and 110 of his allies who were barred from politics by the junta. The election's result represents a humiliation for the generals who ousted the prime minister in September last year, after months of tumultuous street protests against Thaksin by middle-class Thais. Even the adored King, Bhumibol Adulyadej, gave his endorsement to the coup. But it was support from the rural poor and the urban working class that propelled Thaksin to two election victories in the past. Thaksin has remained out of sight during the election campaign, but the campaign speeches by PPP leaders made constant reference to him. "The people lost their freedom on Sept. 19 [the day of the coup in 2006]," Samak Sundaravej, the leader of the PPP, said as he claimed victory. "This is a message to any future persons who want to seize power." He added: "Without doubt, I will be the next Prime Minister for sure... and PPP will form the government. Thaksin said he will come back after the government is formed." With more than 90 percent of the vote counted, the Democrats were trailing with about 161 seats to the 233 of the PPP. Chart Thai, the former ruling party, was in third place with 40 seats. The Election Commission of Thailand still has to rule on charges of election fraud made against scores of candidates. If enough are upheld, the lead of the PPP could be reduced enough to give the Democrats a chance of forming a government with five smaller parties. But the results confirm what has been obvious since Thaksin first became prime minister six years ago -- the social and geographical divide opening up between poor and affluent Thais. The success of the PPP was concentrated in the poor, rural provinces of the north and northeast of the country and in the poorest urban areas, where Thaksin is most adored for his programs for cracking down on drugs, providing cheap loans for farmers and affordable healthcare. "I have heard so many bad things about Mr. Thaksin," Sittipong Horakul, a slum dweller in the Khlong Toei district of Bangkok, who had just voted for the PPP, said. "But he was still the only one who actually did something concrete, something we could see before our eyes." Overall, the Democrats dominated Bangkok and, to a lesser extent, the south, where an Islamic fundamentalist insurgency has cost thousands of lives. Samak implied that there was something fraudulent about the unexpectedly strong showing of the Democrats in the capital. Thailand now faces several days of intense negotiations among the parties and, whatever the outcome, months of continuing tension and uncertainty are likely. During the election campaign, the PPP showed no signs of compromising on the policies of Thaksin. The party's nominee for interior minister, a right-wing former policeman named Chalerm Yubamrung, has already promised to revive the so-called war on drugs, in which 2,600 people were summarily killed by police for allegedly being associated with the narcotics trade. There will be anxiety in the south about a return to the harshly repressive policy which, according to human rights groups, exacerbated the conflict there.