Social conflicts in Honduras undermine stability

Six months into President Manuel Zelaya's term in Honduras, approximately 144 agrarian, labor, environmental and indigenous disputes have been reported–social conflict that is eroding stability and further weakening the country's fragile institutions, warn analysts. The conflicts, the largest number seen in a decade, run from threats, occupations of land, plantones (roadside protests by hundreds of families), marches and strikes, to sit-ins at state institutions and, the most common form of protest, roadblocks. While felt throughout the country, the conflicts have been largely concentrated in the country's northern and central regions, according to the Social Conflict Observatory, run by the Documentation Center of Honduras (CEDOH), a non-profit group dedicated to studying, analyzing and recording issues and trends in this impoverished Central American country. CEDOH director and founder Víctor Meza told IPS that the roots of the unrest can basically be traced to wealth-distribution mechanisms, empty campaign promises, increases in social demands and a resurgence in social mobilization. "As political parties become less representative of the people, the capacity for social mobilization increases. While this is a healthy part of democracy, there is growing concern over the state's inability to design public policies that engender trust and stability," said Meza. He said the social situation in Honduras is a tinderbox waiting to explode, and warned that the Zelaya administration needs to open its eyes. The current government's policy, until now, "has been to take a piecemeal approach, provide handouts and become increasingly deaf to social criticism," he said. According to official statistics, 47 percent of the country's population of seven million lives in extreme poverty. The Liberal Party leader took over as president on Jan. 27, squeaking in with the lowest recorded popular support base–a mere 23 percent of the 3.5-million strong electorate. Officials reported abstention rates of up to 49 percent. The charismatic Zelaya, 57, a wealthy landowner and Harley-Davidson aficionado who often sports cowboy hats and boots, won with the slogan "people power," used to describe his pledge to work closer with and increase the participation of the people, particularly marginalized sectors. Although he represents a centrist party, Zelaya has tried to put a populist stamp on his government, influenced by trends in certain Latin American governments. This has rubbed some of the leaders of the ruling Liberal Party the wrong way, and led to one run-in after another with the US embassy in Tegucigalpa. Zelaya has drawn heavy fire from critics for issues ranging from the make-up of his cabinet–which includes people who sympathized with the left in the 1980s–the lack of well-defined government policies, the increase in public insecurity, political sectarianism and a virtual torrent of subsidies, to the government's intent to open up international fuel purchasing to bidders, giving Venezuela the chance to participate. In a country plagued by high fuel costs for several years, Zelaya's international tender, unprecedented in Honduras, is billed as a way to ensure better prices and greater transparency. US oil companies are staunchly opposed, and the US embassy itself has even embarked on a campaign against the measure. Venezuela has offered excellent fuel purchasing conditions, and will bid on the international tender. Meanwhile, the government currently subsidizes fuels for public transport, to keep prices below $2 per gallon, a measure that cannot be sustained over the long term. Mario Canahuati, president of the Honduran National Business Council (COHEP), told IPS that over the past six months "no comprehensive economic plan has been put forward, and we are concerned about the amount of subsidies being doled out to placate social demands. If this isn't brought under control, the fiscal deficit is going to skyrocket." Canahuati was referring specifically to the recently settled teachers' strike. Following 20 protests in eight weeks, earlier this month 50,000 teachers marched to the capital. The demonstration turned into a violent confrontation between the military, police and teachers, resulting in injuries on both sides, for a total of 70 wounded. In the wake of the clash, the government agreed to cost-of-living increases, as mandated by the Teachers' Statute. The teachers' demands included the payment of salary increments over the next four years, for an overall cost of $300 million. Several economists have said the settlement will encourage demands from other organizations as well as increase the risk of a rise in the fiscal deficit. Dismissing the criticism, Zelaya has said that "in this country the debts of millionaires are forgiven, and people who drive banks into bankruptcy are exonerated. Why can't we give something to a group as vulnerable as teachers?" "My critics tend to be people who cling to the status quo, people in the media who are used to putting the thumbscrews on the government, but this doesn't work on me. These are the ultra right-wing, conservative sectors," said the president in a meeting with civil society leaders, which IPS attended. The administration is also dealing with Garífunas and Lencas–two of the country's seven indigenous groups–who are demanding land, roads and healthcare. Zelaya said he feels "backed into a corner," but is set on continuing his "people power" administration, which at least four members (two ministers and two heads of state entities) have already abandoned due to differences with the president; another has been forced to step down in the face of charges of corruption and irregular contracting. Jesuit priest Ismael Moreno said the new administration's direction "is still shaky, and social issues have not been handled very well. There is also a kind of ideological 'witch hunt' going on, where the left is being blamed for the social unrest, which is ridiculous," he said in an interview with IPS. While the Honduran government blames ultra rightwing conservatives for the protests, the defense ministry blames the left, and the president points the finger at his sworn enemies in the conservative National Party, the country's number-two political party. Whatever the case, it is clear the government has weakened alarmingly fast, popular discontent is growing and it is necessary to open dialogue and debate free of preconceived conclusions, so that the true reality can be understood, emphasized Moreno. Ramón Romero, with the graduate studies program in economics at the state-run National University, told IPS that the government lacks a proper negotiating strategy: "there is no political negotiating skill, and a greater crisis looms on the horizon–fuel issues and the subsidies that become less sustainable with each new one that is authorized." Thus the current administration is facing the challenge of sustaining economic growth of four percent and balancing this growth against social demands and poverty.