Syrians are fearful of becoming the next Iraq

Ask everyday Syrians where their country is headed and you immediately sense the bleakness of the moment. The most hopeful answer is "nowhere." The alternatives, they say, are worse. Catastrophically worse. Such is the grim public mood on the eve of another dossier of United Nations investigative findings into the Feb. 14 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, which is widely expected to deepen the international glare on the corridors of power in Damascus. However much Syrians despise the bare-knuckle corruption that passes for national leadership, it is clear that fear of becoming the next Iraq trumps all. They will suffer onward in lockstep, offering Pavlovian support for their defiant young President Bashar Assad, even if it means enduring UN sanctions. "It sounds sick to say it aloud, but Syrians would rather die of hunger than from civil war or conflict. They want reform, but if reform means Iraq, count them out," said Marwan Kabalan, a political scientist with the Center for Strategic Studies at Damascus University. "It is a sad situation, but the fact is they feel like spectators with absolutely no say in the matter. Syrians today are so passive, so submissive, so completely depoliticized, all they can bring themselves to hope for is stability. So they will back a regime they don't like no matter what happens." Diplomats in Damascus describe an emotional rollercoaster ride in the nine months since Hariri was killed, with both the Assad regime and its citizens driven from one nervous peak to the next. Each political climax, from Syria's withdrawal of troops from Lebanon to the preliminary UN findings on Hariri, which brought suspicions dangerously close to Assad's ruling junta, raised wild speculation that the regime could collapse upon itself. But in the two months since lead UN investigator Detlev Mehlis delivered findings that brought suspicion upon a range of Syrian intelligence leaders, up to and including Assad's brother Maher and brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, Damascus has effectively "circled the wagons to preserve itself," in the words of one political insider. "Damascus sees the Bush administration driving everything. And the regime has been very effective in working to drag things out," said a Western diplomatic source in Damascus. "The game they are playing is to see who can last longer, them or Bush? They're betting they've got the longer life span, and once a new American president comes along they'll be okay." But the missing ingredient, analysts say, was Syrian popular support. Assad tackled the issue head-on last month in what many describe as the most important speech of his life, pressing enough emotional buttons to rally his reluctant people to his side for possible UN sanctions. "Assad's speech was a very personal claim of leadership hitting all the old emotional buttons that resonate with the Arab world–honor, national pride and resistance," said one diplomat. "He framed the pressure from Mehlis together with the struggles of Palestine, Hezbollah and the resistance in Iraq. He drove home the overriding Arab principle that you don't let a stranger come into your house and beat up the family. He even invoked the name of Allah five times in a single statement, which was a shock to all of us. No Syrian leader has ever appealed on religious grounds before." The impact was visceral. Even the regime's most critical opponents found themselves struggling not to stand up and shout "Yes!" But when Syrians awoke the next day, they found their currency in free fall, as a rush to convert the Syrian pound to US dollars triggered an 18 percent devaluation. "I started to wonder, 'What is he doing to us?'" said a Syrian lawyer who asked for anonymity. "Some people here are pretty certain Syria's guilty in the death of Hariri. So now we must prepare for sanctions to protect six people who are criminals anyway?" On the streets of Damascus a government-sponsored disinformation campaign is backing up Assad's bluster. Lawyers and students parade into protest tents in support of the regime, and the government continues to work energetically to discredit the initial Mehlis findings by casting doubt on several witnesses responsible for the most damning testimony. Conspicuous in its absence in the campaign to rally support for Assad is the flag of the ruling Baath Party. The once endemic emblem has all but vanished from public occasions, replaced instead with the flag of Syria. With Mehlis expected to report to the UN probe this week, political analysts say the Syrian regime is gaining confidence that their strategy is working. "The government is on solid ground now. They feel that the storm is passing–but not over," said Sami Moubayed, a Syrian political analyst and author. "Mehlis has been exposed, but more is yet to come in Syria's clash with the international community. The basic reason, Syrians believe, is Iraq." Also emboldening Syria's leadership is the likelihood that any potential UN censure will be limited to so-called smart sanctions designed to target individuals rather than the country as a whole. The UN appears unwilling to revisit the kind of sweeping sanctions that impoverished Iraq during the 1990s without so much as denting the regime of Saddam Hussein. Still, many mid-ranking regime officials appear to be preparing for all contingencies. Sources at several Western embassies confirm they have received unusual requests for visas from some Syrian political figures, although the president and his family are not among the figures mentioned. Other regime officials are believed to have sold off holdings in Syria and transferred assets abroad, with Dubai as the favored destination. Yet the overall picture is of a regime that has confidently hunkered down, having unified around Assad's leadership on the promise that no senior leaders will be sacrificed on the basis of the UN's allegations. Diplomats also observe subtle signs of a drift toward sectarian separation in Syria in the face of continuing uncertainty. Most Syrians scoff at such notions, pointing to the national myth of peaceful coexistence. But some analysts admit that the fissures that separate Syria's complex mix of Shiite, Sunni, Christian, Assyrian, Kurdish and Armenian populations lie tangibly close to the surface. Few are able to confidently predict how the sectarian divisions might rearrange under eventual regime change. But almost every scenario would see the political ascension of Syria's Sunni Muslim majority, estimated at 60 percent, which languishes today under the Alawite-dominated Assad regime. Syrians need only look next door to Iraq to realize they have no interest in finding out the answer to their own sectarian riddle, said Kabalan. "The Assad regime has a lot of cards left to play but that is the biggest one. Nobody wants Syria to be the next Iraq. Everyone fears the result would be total anarchy." If the Syrian leadership's defiance ultimately leads to sanctions, government officials are already preparing the nation for the fact, reminding its citizens that Syria stands almost alone as a developing country with virtually no foreign debt. But critics fear that deepening international isolation will also hamper the already glacial pace of economic and social reforms that Assad introduced shortly after he assumed the presidency after the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, five years ago. Of paramount concern is the rapidly approaching end of Syria's dwindling oil and gas resources, which provide the Syrian government with up to 89 percent of its foreign currency. "Syria needs a four percent growth rate in the coming years just to keep up with its population, most of which is under 35," a Western diplomat said. "That makes the longer term scenario of keeping the country economically viable the regime's biggest challenge." Moubayed agreed, saying that however much the international community might be interested in political change, the real crisis is economic. "Political pluralism and general amnesties are low priorities for people struggling just to survive."