US struggles to avert Turkish intervention in northern Iraq

The US is scrambling to head off a "disastrous" Turkish military intervention in Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq that threatens to derail the Baghdad security surge and open up a third front in the battle to save Iraq from disintegration. Senior Bush administration officials have assured Turkey in recent days that US forces will increase efforts to root out Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) guerrillas enjoying safe haven in the Qandil mountains, on the Iraq-Iran-Turkey border. But Abdullah Gul, Turkey's foreign minister, members of parliament, military chiefs and diplomats say up to 3,800 PKK fighters are preparing for attacks in southeast Turkey–and Turkey is ready to hit back if the US fails to act. "We will do what we have to do, we will do what is necessary. Nothing is ruled out," Gul said. "I have said to the Americans many times: suppose there is a terrorist organization in Mexico attacking America. What would you do?... We are hopeful. We have high expectations. But we cannot just wait forever." Turkish sources said "hot pursuit" special forces operations in Khaftanin and Qanimasi, northern Iraq, were already under way. Murat Karayilan, a PKK leader, said recently that a "mad war" was possible unless Ankara backed off. Fighting between security forces and Kurdish fighters seeking autonomy or independence for Kurdish-dominated areas of southeast Turkey has claimed 37,000 lives since 1984. The last big Turkish operation occurred 10 years ago, when 40,000 troops pushed deep into Iraq. But intervention in the coming weeks would be the first since the US took control of Iraq in 2003 and would risk direct confrontation between Turkish troops and Iraqi Kurdish forces and their US allies. Several other factors are adding to the tension between the NATO partners: tThe firm Turkish belief that the US is playing a double game in northern Iraq. Officials say the CIA is covertly funding and arming the PKK's sister organization, the Iran-based Kurdistan Free Life party, to destabilize the Iranian government. tUS acquiescence in plans to hold a referendum in oil-rich Kirkuk in northern Iraq. Turkey suspects Iraqi Kurds are seeking control of Kirkuk as a prelude to the creation of an independent Kurdistan. tPlans by the US Congress to vote on a resolution blaming Turkey for genocide against the Armenians in 1915. Faruk Logoglu, a former ambassador to Washington, said that if the resolution passed, relations "could take generations to recover." Record levels of Turkish anti-US sentiments dating back to 2003, when Turkey refused to let US combat forces cross the Iraq border. The US is already fighting Sunni insurgents and Shia militias. Analysts say a surge in violence in northern Iraq, previously the most stable region, could capsize the entire US plan. But pressure on the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also growing as a result of forthcoming elections. Military intervention was narrowly avoided last summer when he said that "patience was at an end" over US prevarication. Now conservatives and nationalists are again accusing him of not standing up to Washington. "If they are killing our soldiers... and if public pressure on the government increases, of course we will have to intervene," said Ali Riza Alaboyun, a member of parliament for Erdogan's Justice and Development party. "It is the legal right of any country to protect its people and its borders." US support for Iranian Kurds opposed to the Tehran government is adding to the agitation. "The US is trying to undermine the Iran regime, using the Kurds like it is using the MEK [the anti-Tehran People's Mujahadeen]," said Logoglu. "Once you begin to differentiate between 'good' and 'bad' terrorist organizations, then you lose the war on terror." But he warned that military intervention might be ineffective and could be "disastrous" in destabilizing the region. A recent national security council assessment also suggested that senior Turkish commanders were cautious about the prospects of success. Daniel Fried, assistant secretary of state, said recently that the US was acting to assuage Turkish concerns. "We are committed to eliminating the threat of PKK terrorism in northern Iraq," he said. General Joseph Ralston, the US special envoy dealing with the PKK issue, was less upbeat, admitting that "the potential for Turkish cross-border action" was growing. "We have reached a critical point in which the pressure of continued [PKK] attacks has placed immense public pressure upon the government of Turkey to take some military action. As the snows melt in the mountain passes, we will see if the PKK renews its attacks and how the Turkish government responds…. I hope the Turks will continue to stand by us." But a journalist who writes for the Turkish newspaper Milliyet, Kadri Gursel, said: "The US attitude has really pissed off the government and the army. The US really doesn't understand how exhausted and fed up they are."