US threatens action in Pakistan

An ambush of a military convoy that killed 17 troops near the Afghan border on July 18 pushed the death toll in a series of attacks to at least 101 Pakistanis in the past five days–and brought President Pervez Musharraf, according to a local newspaper headline, to a "Moment of Truth." The Bush administration, after publicly demanding that Musharraf rein in militants linked to al-Qaida, on July 18 threatened to launch attacks into Pakistani territory if it sees fit. "We certainly do not rule out options, and we retain the option especially of striking actionable targets," said White House spokesman Tony Snow. "But it is clearly of the utmost importance to go in there and deal with the problem in the tribal areas." Musharraf has relied heavily on the Bush administration as a source of political support. But with Washington now demanding that Musharraf use force in tribal areas, he is struggling to appear decisive while avoiding a civilian bloodbath or more military carnage. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher made it clear at a press briefing in Washington that while the White House supports long-term development of the tribal regions, there is a strong desire for military intervention. "I think first and foremost we have to remember that some military action is necessary, and will probably have to be taken," Boucher said on July 17. Yet recent evidence suggests that sending in the army to confront militants in Pakistan may lead others to take up arms. When special commando units cinched their cordon around an Islamabad mosque last week, several Pakistani religious leaders warned that a stack of dead bodies in a place of worship–no matter how radical–would risk tumult. The commandos went ahead with their raid, and at least 75 people inside the mosque compound–hardcore Islamic fighters and innocents alike–were killed in two days of heavy fighting. After the operation wrapped up, the backlash had already apparently begun. Troops across the border regions were targeted with suicide bombers, machine-gun fire and roadside explosions. "People in that area are really angry and annoyed with what happened" at the Islamabad mosque, said retired Lt. Gen. Hamid Gul. "If our military moves in there it will have to fight its way through and that will be very bad–you cannot do reconstruction in that sort of environment, and you will lose the battle for hearts and minds." Many analysts here worry that if the military takes too strong a role, it would risk killing innocents and help al-Qaida and Taliban leaders win more support in local villages, paving the way for a push into outlying areas. "You can't just start bombing and targeting areas with civilians living around there," said Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad, a top Pakistani military spokesman. "It would be playing right into the hands of the militants and extremists." A large Pakistani military operation in the tribal regions, coupled with US officials' calls for action, could lead many Pakistanis to believe that Musharraf is acting as a US surrogate, said analysts and officials in Islamabad. That in turn, they said, would make it easier for radical Muslims to legitimize terrorist attacks as strikes against a Western conspiracy to control an Islamic state. "The US lawmakers are absolutely oblivious of the ground realities," said Gul, the retired general. But, Gul said, Musharraf's political base has been badly shaken recently–by the controversial suspension of the Supreme Court's chief justice, and then the mosque raid–and he might bend to US pressure to launch large-scale military strikes in the border region. "Extremism is rising, because you don't fight extremism with a man perceived as an American stooge, you don't fight extremism with suppression–you fight it with a genuine democratic process," said Imran Khan, a former Pakistani cricket star turned political upstart who has been vocal in his criticism of Musharraf. "The tribal areas are out of his control, whatever leverage he had is gone now."