Links
Why an Israeli attack on Iran is unlikely
Over the summer there has been a neo-conservative led effort to propagate the case for attacking Iran militarily. This trend is exemplified by the cover of the September issue of the Atlantic monthly boldly reading: "Israel is Getting Ready to Bomb Iran."
In the issue is Jeffrey Goldberg's article, "Point of No Return," in which he illustrates the Israeli view that it has no choice but to commence a bombing interdiction on Iran's nuclear facilities. The media commentary arguing the case for bombing Iran strengthen the credibility of Israel's threat in such a way as to convince the American public and perhaps the Iranian regime that it is not bluffing.
Although this is by no means diplomacy, Israel is engaging in a strategy of sending signals intended to discourage Iran from further developing their nuclear program. In order for the threat to be credible the signal Israel is sending must also have costs. By issuing threats of attacking Iran, Israel is incurring the cost of appearing irrationally belligerent and reckless toward the vital interests of its allies in the international community, namely the disruption of oil flow in the Middle East caused by armed conflict.