Syria is lynchpin to Middle East Peace
When the Israelis' controversial twenty-two-day military campaign in Gaza ended, on January 18th, it also seemed to end the promising peace talks between Israel and Syria. Many complicated technical matters had been resolved, and there were agreements in principle on the normalization of diplomatic relations.
At an Arab summit in Qatar in mid-January, however, Bashar Assad, the President of Syria, angrily declared that Israel's bombing of Gaza and the resulting civilian deaths showed that the Israelis spoke only "the language of blood." He called on the Arab world to boycott Israel, close any Israeli embassies in the region, and sever all "direct or indirect ties with Israel." Syria, Assad said, had ended its talks over the Golan Heights.
Nonetheless, a few days after the Israeli ceasefire in Gaza, Assad said in an email that he was still very interested in closing the deal. "We still believe that we need to conclude a serious dialogue to lead us to peace," he said.
"There are a lot of people going back and forth to Damascus from Washington saying there is low-hanging fruit waiting for someone to harvest."
American and foreign officials, advisors, and politicians agree that despite Gaza, and the ascension of right-wing Benjamin Netanyahu to Prime Minister of Israel, renewed negotiations are likely. Those talks would depend largely on America's willingness to act as the mediator, a role that could offer Barack Obama his first"and perhaps best"chance for engagement in the Middle East peace process. A senior Syrian official explained that Israel's failure to unseat Hamas from power in Gaza, despite the scale of the war, gave Assad enough political room to continue the negotiations without losing credibility in the Arab world. A major change in American policy toward Syria is clearly under way. A former American diplomat who has been involved in the Middle East peace process said, "There are a lot of people going back and forth to Damascus from Washington saying there is low-hanging fruit waiting for someone to harvest." Many Israelis and Americans involved in the process believe that a deal on the Golan Heights could be a way to isolate Iran, one of Syria's closest allies, and to moderate Syria's support for Hamas and for Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite group. But others believe that Assad's ultimate goal is not to marginalize Iran but to bring it, too, into regional talks. Assad said that if America's leaders "are seeking peace they have to deal with Syria and they have to deal with our rights, which is the Golan Heights." In the Six-Day War, in 1967, Israel seized the Golan Heights, about four hundred and fifty square miles of territory that is rich in Biblical history and, crucially, in water. Assad said, "[T]he Israelis know that we are not going to negotiate the line of 1967." But he suggested that compromises were possible. "We only demarcate the line," he said. "We negotiate the relations, the water, and everything else . . .You discuss everything after the peace and getting your land. Not before." If Israel wants a settlement that goes beyond the Golan Heights, Assad said, it will have to "deal with the core issue""the situation in the West Bank and Gaza""and not waste time talking about who is going to send arms to Hezbollah or Hamas. Wherever you have resistance in the region, they will have armaments somehow. . . . For Iran, it is not part of the peace process anyway." Assad went on, "This peace is about peace between Syria and Israel." In December, 2008, Ehud Olmert, who was then Prime Minister, flew to Ankara, Turkey, and conducted more than five hours of intense talks on the return of the Golan Heights, with the mediation of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was often in direct telephone contact with Bashar Assad. But Olmert's standing was tarnished by the Gaza war, which began days after he left Ankara. Itamar Rabinovich, who was Israel's chief negotiator with Syria under Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, argued that the war in Gaza had not changed Israel's essential interest in a Golan Heights settlement. "Assad definitely wants to go ahead with the talks," he said, adding that "Netanyahu . . . would prefer to make a deal with Syria rather than with the Palestinians." Rabinovich said that he thought Obama, like Netanyahu, "will see a Golan Heights settlement as being more feasible" than a deal with the Palestinians. "The talks are serious, and there is a partner."
Assad noted late last year that the Bush White House was not interested in peace. "They created a lot of problems around the world," he said, "and . . . made the world more vulnerable to terrorism."
Under Obama, diplomatic contacts with Damascus were expanded in late February, and informal exchanges with Syria have already taken place. According to involved diplomats, the Administration's tone was one of dialogue and respect"and not a series of demands. For negotiations to begin, the Syrians understood that Washington would no longer insist that Syria shut down the Hamas liaison office in Damascus and oust its political leader, Khaled Meshal. Syria, instead, will be asked to play a moderating role with the Hamas leadership, and urge a peaceful resolution of Hamas's ongoing disputes with Israel and the Palestinian Authority. The Clinton Administration had been involved in negotiations over the Golan Heights, at Shepherdstown, West Virginia, in 2000. Those talks provided the backbone for the recent indirect negotiations. During the campaign for the White House, Obama said that he would be willing to sit down with Assad in the first year of his Presidency without preconditions. He also endorsed the Syrian peace talks with Israel, which the Bush Administration was firmly opposed to. Bush dismissed any talk of overtures with a long list of preconditions, and disparaged Assad as being interested only in self-aggrandizement. Assad noted late last year that the Bush White House was not interested in peace. "They created a lot of problems around the world," he said, "and . . . made the world more vulnerable to terrorism." Assad praised the diplomatic efforts of former President Jimmy Carter. Carter's calls for engagement with Hamas have angered many in Israel and America. Last December, Carter visited Syria, and met not only with President Assad but with Khaled Meshal, the Hamas leader. A senior White House official confirmed that the Obama transition team had been informed in advance of Carter's trip to Syria, and that Carter met with Obama shortly before the Inauguration. The two men discussed the Middle East for an hour. The Obama transition team also helped persuade Israel to end the bombing of Gaza and to withdraw its ground troops before the Inauguration. Syria's relationship with Iran will emerge as the crucial issue in the diplomatic reviews now under way in Washington. A settlement, the Israelis believe, would reduce Iran's regional standing and influence. An Israeli official acknowledged that his government had learned of "tensions between Syria and Iran in recent months." Before Gaza, he said, there had been a noticeable change in the Syrian tone during informal contacts""an element of openness, candor, and civility."
"Do you think a man only goes to bed with a woman he deeply loves?" Shara laughed, and added, "That's my answer to your question about Iran."
Martin Indyk, who advised Clinton at Shepherdstown, said he had repeatedly sought, without success, to convince the Bush Administration that it was possible to draw Syria away from Iran. In his recent memoir, Indyk wrote, "There is a deep divergence between Iran and Syria." Referring to Assad, he said, "It will not be easy for him to break with Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran, but he cannot get a peace deal unless he does." Assad repeated to me that Iran did not object to the Golan Heights talks, on the principle that any return of sovereign land was to be applauded. But there is some evidence that the Syrians may be reassessing their relationship with Iran. The senior Syrian official said that an opening to the West would bring the country increased tourism, trade, and investment, and a higher standard of living"progress that would eventually make it less reliant on Iran. But Robert Pastor, a former National Security Council official who has visited Damascus with former President Carter, said that Syria has no intention of ending their relationship with Iran. "They believe their relationship with Iran could be of help to the Obama Administration. They believe they could be a bridge between Washington and Tehran." Farouk al-Shara, the current Vice-President of Syria, was the Foreign Minister in 2000, and thus the chief negotiator with Israel at Shepherdstown. When he was asked whether Syria's relationship with Iran would change if the Golan Heights issue was resolved, he said, "Do you think a man only goes to bed with a woman he deeply loves?" Shara laughed, and added, "That's my answer to your question about Iran." Khaled Meshal, the leader of Hamas, is seen by Israel as a sponsor of suicide bombers and other terrorist activity. In 1997, he survived an assassination by poisoning, perpetrated by Israeli intelligence which Netanyahu, then the Prime Minister, had ordered. Under pressure from Jordan and the U.S., the Israelis handed over the poison's antidote, saving Meshal's life. Speaking through a translator, Meshal said he doubted that Israel intended to return the Golan Heights to Syrian control. But, he said, "If we suppose that Israel is serious, we support the right of Syria to negotiate with Israel to attain its legitimate rights." Hamas's presence in Damascus had, he knew, been a contentious issue in Syria's relations with both the United States and Israel, and promised not to stand in the way of any negotiations. "The Hamas movement will not work against the interests of any other country," he said, "and any agreement can be concluded, whether we like it or not. But, also, we don't want anyone to interfere in our affairs." Another impediment to a new relationship between the United States and Syria is the unresolved question of who killed Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese Prime Minister, in 2005. Hariri was a sharp critic of Syria's involvement in Lebanon, and the assassination exacerbated tensions between Syria and Saudi Arabia. An adviser to the Saudi government said that King Abdullah did not accept Assad's assurances that he had nothing to do with the murder. But there has recently been a flurry of renewed diplomatic contacts between Damascus and Riyadh. Assad, in his interview with me, said that he had a message for Obama: Syria, as a secular state, and the United States faced a common enemy in Al Qaeda and Islamic extremism. He said that the Bush view of fundamentalists as groups that could be defeated militarily was overly simplistic. He said he is happy that Obama appears open to diplomacy as a means of conducting international policy. The White House has tough diplomatic choices to make in the next few months. Assad has told the Obama Administration that his nation can ease the American withdrawal in Iraq. Syria also can help the U.S. engage with Iran, and the Iranians, in turn, could become an ally in neighboring Afghanistan, as the Obama Administration struggles to deal with the Taliban threat and its deepening involvement in that country"and to maintain its long-standing commitment to the well-being of Israel. Each of these scenarios has potential downsides. Resolving all of them will be formidable, and will involve sophisticated and intelligent diplomacy"the kind of diplomacy that disappeared during the past eight years, and that the Obama team has to prove it possesses.
American and foreign officials, advisors, and politicians agree that despite Gaza, and the ascension of right-wing Benjamin Netanyahu to Prime Minister of Israel, renewed negotiations are likely. Those talks would depend largely on America's willingness to act as the mediator, a role that could offer Barack Obama his first"and perhaps best"chance for engagement in the Middle East peace process. A senior Syrian official explained that Israel's failure to unseat Hamas from power in Gaza, despite the scale of the war, gave Assad enough political room to continue the negotiations without losing credibility in the Arab world. A major change in American policy toward Syria is clearly under way. A former American diplomat who has been involved in the Middle East peace process said, "There are a lot of people going back and forth to Damascus from Washington saying there is low-hanging fruit waiting for someone to harvest." Many Israelis and Americans involved in the process believe that a deal on the Golan Heights could be a way to isolate Iran, one of Syria's closest allies, and to moderate Syria's support for Hamas and for Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite group. But others believe that Assad's ultimate goal is not to marginalize Iran but to bring it, too, into regional talks. Assad said that if America's leaders "are seeking peace they have to deal with Syria and they have to deal with our rights, which is the Golan Heights." In the Six-Day War, in 1967, Israel seized the Golan Heights, about four hundred and fifty square miles of territory that is rich in Biblical history and, crucially, in water. Assad said, "[T]he Israelis know that we are not going to negotiate the line of 1967." But he suggested that compromises were possible. "We only demarcate the line," he said. "We negotiate the relations, the water, and everything else . . .You discuss everything after the peace and getting your land. Not before." If Israel wants a settlement that goes beyond the Golan Heights, Assad said, it will have to "deal with the core issue""the situation in the West Bank and Gaza""and not waste time talking about who is going to send arms to Hezbollah or Hamas. Wherever you have resistance in the region, they will have armaments somehow. . . . For Iran, it is not part of the peace process anyway." Assad went on, "This peace is about peace between Syria and Israel." In December, 2008, Ehud Olmert, who was then Prime Minister, flew to Ankara, Turkey, and conducted more than five hours of intense talks on the return of the Golan Heights, with the mediation of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was often in direct telephone contact with Bashar Assad. But Olmert's standing was tarnished by the Gaza war, which began days after he left Ankara. Itamar Rabinovich, who was Israel's chief negotiator with Syria under Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, argued that the war in Gaza had not changed Israel's essential interest in a Golan Heights settlement. "Assad definitely wants to go ahead with the talks," he said, adding that "Netanyahu . . . would prefer to make a deal with Syria rather than with the Palestinians." Rabinovich said that he thought Obama, like Netanyahu, "will see a Golan Heights settlement as being more feasible" than a deal with the Palestinians. "The talks are serious, and there is a partner."
Under Obama, diplomatic contacts with Damascus were expanded in late February, and informal exchanges with Syria have already taken place. According to involved diplomats, the Administration's tone was one of dialogue and respect"and not a series of demands. For negotiations to begin, the Syrians understood that Washington would no longer insist that Syria shut down the Hamas liaison office in Damascus and oust its political leader, Khaled Meshal. Syria, instead, will be asked to play a moderating role with the Hamas leadership, and urge a peaceful resolution of Hamas's ongoing disputes with Israel and the Palestinian Authority. The Clinton Administration had been involved in negotiations over the Golan Heights, at Shepherdstown, West Virginia, in 2000. Those talks provided the backbone for the recent indirect negotiations. During the campaign for the White House, Obama said that he would be willing to sit down with Assad in the first year of his Presidency without preconditions. He also endorsed the Syrian peace talks with Israel, which the Bush Administration was firmly opposed to. Bush dismissed any talk of overtures with a long list of preconditions, and disparaged Assad as being interested only in self-aggrandizement. Assad noted late last year that the Bush White House was not interested in peace. "They created a lot of problems around the world," he said, "and . . . made the world more vulnerable to terrorism." Assad praised the diplomatic efforts of former President Jimmy Carter. Carter's calls for engagement with Hamas have angered many in Israel and America. Last December, Carter visited Syria, and met not only with President Assad but with Khaled Meshal, the Hamas leader. A senior White House official confirmed that the Obama transition team had been informed in advance of Carter's trip to Syria, and that Carter met with Obama shortly before the Inauguration. The two men discussed the Middle East for an hour. The Obama transition team also helped persuade Israel to end the bombing of Gaza and to withdraw its ground troops before the Inauguration. Syria's relationship with Iran will emerge as the crucial issue in the diplomatic reviews now under way in Washington. A settlement, the Israelis believe, would reduce Iran's regional standing and influence. An Israeli official acknowledged that his government had learned of "tensions between Syria and Iran in recent months." Before Gaza, he said, there had been a noticeable change in the Syrian tone during informal contacts""an element of openness, candor, and civility."
Martin Indyk, who advised Clinton at Shepherdstown, said he had repeatedly sought, without success, to convince the Bush Administration that it was possible to draw Syria away from Iran. In his recent memoir, Indyk wrote, "There is a deep divergence between Iran and Syria." Referring to Assad, he said, "It will not be easy for him to break with Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran, but he cannot get a peace deal unless he does." Assad repeated to me that Iran did not object to the Golan Heights talks, on the principle that any return of sovereign land was to be applauded. But there is some evidence that the Syrians may be reassessing their relationship with Iran. The senior Syrian official said that an opening to the West would bring the country increased tourism, trade, and investment, and a higher standard of living"progress that would eventually make it less reliant on Iran. But Robert Pastor, a former National Security Council official who has visited Damascus with former President Carter, said that Syria has no intention of ending their relationship with Iran. "They believe their relationship with Iran could be of help to the Obama Administration. They believe they could be a bridge between Washington and Tehran." Farouk al-Shara, the current Vice-President of Syria, was the Foreign Minister in 2000, and thus the chief negotiator with Israel at Shepherdstown. When he was asked whether Syria's relationship with Iran would change if the Golan Heights issue was resolved, he said, "Do you think a man only goes to bed with a woman he deeply loves?" Shara laughed, and added, "That's my answer to your question about Iran." Khaled Meshal, the leader of Hamas, is seen by Israel as a sponsor of suicide bombers and other terrorist activity. In 1997, he survived an assassination by poisoning, perpetrated by Israeli intelligence which Netanyahu, then the Prime Minister, had ordered. Under pressure from Jordan and the U.S., the Israelis handed over the poison's antidote, saving Meshal's life. Speaking through a translator, Meshal said he doubted that Israel intended to return the Golan Heights to Syrian control. But, he said, "If we suppose that Israel is serious, we support the right of Syria to negotiate with Israel to attain its legitimate rights." Hamas's presence in Damascus had, he knew, been a contentious issue in Syria's relations with both the United States and Israel, and promised not to stand in the way of any negotiations. "The Hamas movement will not work against the interests of any other country," he said, "and any agreement can be concluded, whether we like it or not. But, also, we don't want anyone to interfere in our affairs." Another impediment to a new relationship between the United States and Syria is the unresolved question of who killed Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese Prime Minister, in 2005. Hariri was a sharp critic of Syria's involvement in Lebanon, and the assassination exacerbated tensions between Syria and Saudi Arabia. An adviser to the Saudi government said that King Abdullah did not accept Assad's assurances that he had nothing to do with the murder. But there has recently been a flurry of renewed diplomatic contacts between Damascus and Riyadh. Assad, in his interview with me, said that he had a message for Obama: Syria, as a secular state, and the United States faced a common enemy in Al Qaeda and Islamic extremism. He said that the Bush view of fundamentalists as groups that could be defeated militarily was overly simplistic. He said he is happy that Obama appears open to diplomacy as a means of conducting international policy. The White House has tough diplomatic choices to make in the next few months. Assad has told the Obama Administration that his nation can ease the American withdrawal in Iraq. Syria also can help the U.S. engage with Iran, and the Iranians, in turn, could become an ally in neighboring Afghanistan, as the Obama Administration struggles to deal with the Taliban threat and its deepening involvement in that country"and to maintain its long-standing commitment to the well-being of Israel. Each of these scenarios has potential downsides. Resolving all of them will be formidable, and will involve sophisticated and intelligent diplomacy"the kind of diplomacy that disappeared during the past eight years, and that the Obama team has to prove it possesses.